A tricky guess
Before we reveal the answer…
Take one more look at the puzzle.
Ready to reveal the answer and logic?
But why?
Strange as it seems, the answer to any of the questions improves your odds from a random guess (1/52) to 1/26. Ask ‘is the card red?’ and once you know the answer, you have to guess one of the 26 red cards, so 1/26. Ask ‘is the card a king, queen or jack?’ If yes, you have a 1/12 chance and if no, it’s 1/40. The overall chance, therefore is (1/12 x 1/52 = 1/52 for ‘yes) plus (1/40 x 40/52 = 1/52 for ‘no’) so 1/52 + 1/52 = 1/26. And finally, ask ‘Is the card the ace of spades?’. There’s a 1/52 chance that it is and a 51/52 chance that it isn’t. If the card is not the ace of spades you have a 1/51 chance of guessing it. So the chance of guessing correctly when the card is not the ace of spades is 51/52 x 1/51 = 1/52. Again, the sum of both possible outcomes is 1/52 + 1/52 = 1/26.